Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Consumer confidence

The consumer confidence numbers came out today and they were lower than expected. We are a consumer based economy, so consumer confidence is a very important gage. The higher the confidence, the higher sales and profits will be. The lower the confidence, the lower sales and profits will be. Now, consumer confidence is still up for the period, but this sudden and unexpected shift can spell trouble for the future. Since I don't believe that we have had any significant recovery, I am surprised consumer confidence is as high as it is. Nevertheless, any change in direction can spell trouble. I wonder how this will play out in the stock market? I believe we are at the top (or close to it) in stocks. So I am expecting a sell off at some point here. Will it be a crash? I believe that's a big possibility. With our economy in such a fragile state, it would not be good for us as a whole for stocks to crash.

What do you think?