The future of work

I came across a couple of interesting articles that give some insight into the future of work. The first article was about the "gig" economy. It was talking about how more and more employers are hiring people as independent contractors. In other words, more businesses are hiring outside workers rather than inside workers. It turns out that the government is also doing the same thing. The second article was about the further use of robots in the workplace. The port of Los Angeles is using a massive robot to move shipping containers. This used to be done by crane operators, who are paid very well. Well, it looks like those jobs will be disappearing soon. So the feature of work will either be automated, or independent. So if you have a job you will either be replaced by a machine, or you will be made an independent contractor which means you will be self-employed. These are a couple of interesting trends I am going to keep an eye on. I think they will have a huge impact on our economy and the future of work.

Just a note. There was a strike not to long ago at the Port in Los Angeles. Maybe this is one of the consequences of going on strike? Robots don't go on strike.

What do you think?

Original content

The story of how successful Netflix has been with original content is old news. What is new is how many companies are looking to develop and produce their own original content. I just read that Apple is going to stream some original content on iTunes. That is very interesting because if Apple is doing it, then the future has arrived. Apple was not the first company to venture into digital music, but it has probably been the most successful. It was also not the first company to sell ebooks, but it also is one of the most successful. Now with original content it promises to become a powerhouse in that field. A thought just struck me. It is a good time to be in the content creation (movies and TV shows) business. I just wish I was!

What do you think?

A culture of cheaters

My wife had an interview not long ago. Afterwards she had another interviewee, who had yet to interview, ask her what the questions were at the interview. My wife told her that it was cheating if she told her. The interviewee aid what's the big deal, everyone does it. Is that true? Does everyone cheat? I am starting to believe that the vast majority of people in the U.S. cheat at something. Weather it is in regards to taxes, or age, or weight, or experience, or education or on a host of many other things, Americans have mostly become cheaters. Do we not realize that cheating is the best way to fail? Do we not see that when we cheat we are lying? I guess that is not a big deal because we have also become a culture of liars. What will our society become if this epidemic of cheating (and lying) does not end?

What do you think?

A culture of liars

I have known ever since I became a teacher over 20 years ago that being lied to was just part of my daily experience. I think that was the biggest shock I had when I became a teacher. So, I have come to expect to be lied to at work. What I have noticed lately is that I am being lied to more and more outside of work. In fact I would say that we are becoming a culture of liars. Not only are more more people lying, more and more people are expecting to be lied to and accepting it. I think this will have a devastating impact on our society. How can our society survive when everyone is a liar? What does that say about us a a society when we think that lying is OK?

What do you think?

The greatest invention

What is the greatest invention ever? While there are many contenders, I would say the greatest invention ever was the printing press. Before the printing press in the 1400s, mankind lived in the dark ages. After the invention of the printing press you have the Renaissance and then the modern age. It is the printing press that made what we have today possible. It is the ability to mass produce knowledge in the form of books that has transformed our lives. It is the printing press that made modern medicine possible. Without the sharing of knowledge in the form of books, modern medicine would not exist. it is the sharing of knowledge through mass produce books that created modern science. It is modern science that has given us every technological advancement we have. I could go on but I think you get my point.
I also believe that the modern evolution of the printing press is the Internet. It is through the Internet that the vast majority of knowledge is shared today. It is this sharing of knowledge that will create our future. I also want to make an observation. The most important contribution of the printing press is the sharing of text. It is the words in the books that were printed that transformed the world. If you take a look at the Internet, the vast majority of information on the Internet is still text. It was text that transformed the world and it is still text that is transforming the world. It is the power of the written word.

What do you think?

Immigration

What do I think I'm immigration? My mom and dad are immigrants. They came from Argentina legally in the 1950s. Then they became citizens of the United States. Finally, they renounced their original citizenship in Argentina, just because they were so proud to be Americans. We are a nation of immigrants. That's what makes us unique and special. Yes we are free, yes we have a wonderful constitution, and yes it is all about liberty. But, immigration is also part of our story of success. That is, legal immigration is part of the story of our success. In the past we basically turn a blind eye to illegal immigration. We did so because frankly, we could afford it and we needed the cheap labor. Today though, we can no longer afford illegal immigration. We cannot absorb millions of people who have no skills, low education, no assets, and basically have very little to offer to our economy. We can no longer be the solution to poverty for the rest of the world. If we are to keep our economy healthy, we must control our borders. We must make sure that the only people who are immigrating to our country are the people we allow. It is a matter of saving our economy, our way of life, and the future for our children.

What do you think?

The driverless future

A few days ago I wrote a blog post about how there does not seem to be any disruptive new technology on the horizon. I think I was wrong. I think we have a specific technology that will probably transformer our lives over the next couple of decades. It is the driverless car and truck. The car or truck that drives itself is truly something right out of science-fiction. It seems impossible that one day we will not have to drive ourselves to work, or all the trucks we see around us as we drive will not have a driver. The reality is that someday soon we will start seeing driverless vehicles on the roads around us. At first it will be just a trickle of vehicles. Just a novelty. Eventually that trickle will turn into a flood and then almost all the vehicles on the road will be driverless. As I think about this, I'm struck by how much our lives might change if we all had driverless vehicles. Just imagine that you are on your way to work and you can do something else with your time instead of driving. Imagine all the productive things you can do? (Of course there are also a host of unproductive things you can do as well). But can you imagine not having to drive when you need to go some place? Here I am at this very moment driving into work. How amazing it is going to be when I could freely write, and think, and do something creative while I'm on my way. I think driverless vehicles are going to transform our lives.

What do you think?

The future of music

I have been a musician for 40 years, a composer and arranger for 30 years, and a public school music teacher for 21 years. Music has changed tremendously over the last couple of decades, and will continue to change for the next few decades. The reason music is changing is because of the digital revolution. What you can do on a laptop today you needed a full symphony orchestra to do in the past. What you can do on a laptop today you needed a full recording studio to do it in the past. What you can do on a laptop today you needed a publishing company and a printing press in the past. It is just amazing what you can do with the laptop and some software and maybe a midi keyboard and a laser printer. Today with a laptop you can create music for just about any kind of ensemble. You can create music in any kind of genre. You can then record it, master it, package it, and sell it in variety of formats. That is what has changed music and what is also going to continue to change music. We are living in the age of the one man orchestra, recording studio, production company, publishing house, and anything else you might want to do in music. I am continually surprised by what is possible to do on a laptop today. And it is just the beginning.

What do you think?

The digital revolution

I was just looking at some information on Netflix. It has sales of about 5.5 billion dollar a year with a net income of $300-400 million, but it only has about 2200 employees. How can a company with such a large amount of sales only have 2200 employees? It has so few employees because it outsources as much as possible. I was just reading today that Netflix has finally closed down Its last date center. It now has outsourced all its data to Amazon (which is actually ironic since they are competitors). So not only does Netflix have very few employees, it doesn't even own the servers that its data is on. Talk about radical outsourcing! This is a key feature of the digital age we are living in. You can now create a company that earns billions of dollars a year with very few employees. I would dare to say that you can literally create a multi-million dollar company all by yourself. Is that truly possible? I believe it is so.

I think this is one aspect of the digital revolution that is a blessing and a curse. It is a blessing because well, you can create a multi-million dollar company all by yourself. The curse is, if you are not the owner, who will you be working for? The digital revolution is offering great opportunity to those who are capable of starting their own companies. But, it is a curse to those who will need to find jobs. Why? Because there will not be enough of them. The next couple of decades are going to be very interesting.

What do you think?

Oil disaster

The price of oil dropped to $26 a barrel today. I remember predicting a few months ago that the price of oil would drop below $40 a barrel and that would be horrible for the economy. Here we are at $26 a barrel and it is a total disaster. Oil related businesses are starting to lay off well paid workers by the thousands. Many of the businesses are in financial crisis and I'm sure we will see a whole slew of bankruptcies and the near future. Unfortunately oil may go even lower. There are reports that storage facilities are just about full and they might have to turn any new oil from their facilities. If and when that happens oil will drop even further. Are we ready for oil to be lower than $20 a barrel? I personally like paying less for gasoline. But, I do not like seeing the destruction of one of the most productive sectors of our economy. This drop in price is going to have negative ramifications for many years to come. if you are in any way involved in the oil industry buckle up it's going to be a bumpy ride. Actually I think that is the wrong analogy. I actually think the oil industry is like the Titanic on a collision course with an iceberg.

What do you think?

The digital revolution and the impact on people.

I just read a report on the impact of automation on jobs. It is estimated that over 45% of jobs are at risk of being taken over by some form of automation. How can you know if your job is at risk? Simple, how easy is it for your job to be done by a computer? I was looking at a list of jobs that are not susceptible to being automated and most of them are in health care. I guess if we want a job in the future we all need to work in the health care industry in some capacity. My concern is this, what are people going to do if their jobs are taken over by automation? In the past when jobs were lost they were replaced by other jobs (like car jobs for horse and carriage jobs that I wrote of before). Unfortunately there are no new jobs being created by the digital revolution. I think we are in for a massive societal unrest and upheaval in the not to far away future (if not sooner). How are people going to earn a living? If you can find an answer you will make a fortune.

What do you think?

See the article at: http://www.kurzweilai.net/impact-of-automation-puts-up-to-85-of-jobs-in-developing-countries-at-risk?utm_source=KurzweilAI+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=0703504b19-UA-946742-1&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6de721fb33-0703504b19-282178613

The debt monster

One of the biggest problems we have in our nation today is the amount of debt we have accumulated. The amount of debt that we have in our nation is staggering. If you add up what the federal government owes, what the state and local government owe, what corporations and businesses owe, and what individual and families owe, the amount is so immense it blows the mind. It is in the many trillions of dollars. I would actually do the math for you, but it's so large that doesn't really matter. In fact, I think it's so large that I doubt it will ever get paid back. So what is the implication? The implication is that essentially we are technically bankrupt. In other words, we are broke as a nation, and as a people. The other conclusion I come to is that the next few years are going to be difficult to say the least. This debt monster that has been created will wreck havoc and it is going to be ugly.

What do you think?

Technological advancement

I was thinking today about technological advancement. Right now in 2016 it does not feel as if we are on the cusp of anything new that will be revolutionary. Is that an accurate perception? If you look back at significant technological advances you come away with an interesting insight. Most if not all effectual technological advances were not foreseen or were expected. Take the automobile. Yes people thought they were great, and a novelty, but did they realize it was going to transform society as they knew it? I don't think so. Take the airplane. Though there were several people working on making it work, no one thought it was possible. But when the Wright brothers got it together, it transformed the world. The same could be said of the telephone, the computer, and even the Internet. No one truly guessed that they would be so transformative, but they were (and still are). Maybe we are living in a time when no new technical advances will be made, but maybe we are not? Maybe just on the horizon is something that will blow our minds. Wouldn't that be amazing?

What do you think?