Is Inflation Bad Or Good?

A little inflation is good. We all want to make a little more money, we all want to have our assets appreciate a little bit. And even though we will pay a little more for stuff, that’s good overall. High inflation on the other hand is terrible. Why? Because usually our incomes will not keep up with high inflation. Things will cost more and our incomes won’t increase at the same rate. So what happens is that we become poorer and poorer as inflation rate goes higher. Unfortunately that’s what we are experiencing now. If inflation keeps going at the rate it is, we will just suffer and become poorer as it progresses. Unfortunately the cure for inflation is higher interest rates and a slower economy. Which, will also make us poor. So for the foreseeable future we are all going to be poorer.

What do you think?

Keep An Eye On England?

I have noticed an interesting trend. What happens in England eventually happens here. It is as if England is a leading indicator. I saw this happen with COVID 19. First England would have a surge in cases and a few weeks later, we would as well. Right now England is having some serious financial troubles related to their government bonds. I am not sure exactly why they are having issues, but hiking interest rates cratered their bond market. In fact, some have called it a “run”, which sounds like a panic to me. Well, if England is a leading indicator, then we will be experiencing some kind go “run” on bonds here soon. If that happens, then things will get nasty with the economy. Batten down the hatches, an economic storm is coming!

What do you think?

No Excuses?

We live in an incredible time. We live at a time when you can accomplish just about anything. Do you want to write a book? Go and write it and publish it yourself. Want to create an album of music? Go record it and distribute it yourself. Want to make a movie? Go and film it, and then post it online for anybody to see. The reality is you can do anything your heart desires. The only thing that keeps you from accomplishing anything, is yourself. You just have to go out there and get it done. There are no excuses.

What do you think?

Is Ukraine Winning?

Ukraine has been winning the war since the first few weeks. When Ukraine stopped the Russian advance outside of Kyiv, that’s when they started to win. And they have been winning ever since. Yes Russia has taken some territory. But they paid a very heavy price, and now they are starting to retreat. In fact they might even have a collapse of their army if they’re not careful. So yes Ukraine is winning. The question now is, what will Russia do? That is the scary part.

What do you think?

Do The 10 Commandments Matter?

I don’t like to post my views about religion very often. But I do want to make an observation. A society that follows the 10 Commandments and keeps them, is a healthy society. A society that violates and does not keep the 10 Commandments is not a healthy society. So how well do my fellow Americans keep the 10 Commandments? Well on just a casual observation I would say not so well. And things are getting worse. Which means, our society is going to not function. And that means, the 10 Commandments do matter.

What do you think?

Easy Come, Easy Go?

Earlier this week stocks went substantially hire on news that maybe the FED would stop hiking interest rates. Well, that did not last long. The September job numbers came in better than expected, which now makes the stock market thing the FED will hike rates again. So easy come, and easy go. Maybe it is better to just put your money under your mattress or in a coffee can. It would probably be safer, but then again, inflation would make it worth less and less every day. What a mess! All I know is that this is not going to end well for us common folk - as usual.

What do you think?

Does Universal Healthcare Work?

If you look at countries with universal healthcare you get the impression that it’s working really well. You can look at the systems in Europe and go wow, wouldn’t that be great if we had it here. But the truth is that universal healthcare works great if you never really get sick. But, if you have any kind of major health problem that’s a different story. There are endless stories of people waiting months for treatment and waiting until they die basically. Also, universal healthcare works just fine until you run out of money. That’s what’s happening in several countries as we speak. So universal healthcare system is a great idea, but it just doesn’t quite work.

The current system and we have it in the United States doesn’t quite work either, but on the other hand, if you’re sick you can get help immediately. you might just have to file bankruptcy after you get help though. On the other hand, you would still be alive

What do you think?

Did Live Music Die?

Back in 2020 I wrote that I thought that live music was going to die. We were in the middle of a pandemic and live music I’ve been banned just about everywhere. But since the pandemic has ended, or at least it feels like it has ended, live music has made a comeback. No one is more relieved than me. I wrote back in 2020 that I could not imagine living in a world without live music. Well fortunately, we don’t have to.

Right now I am gainfully employed playing live music at a winery. And things cannot be better. Hopefully we will not have to go through another event like we just did.

What do you think?

Starting Again

I stopped blogging a long time ago. So long that I do not even remember why I stopped. But, here I am back again. Something just drew me back in and I have no idea what it is. I think itt has to do with starting to write everyday once again, and having the time. Plus things are not as "crazy" in my life like they have been over the last couple of years.

So, here I go again.

What do you think?

Thank You Google

I know a lot of people do not like Google, but I do. I like having all the tools they offer for free. Yes, the price is the loss of my privacy, but that does not really bother me. The government already has violated all my privacy rights, and I do not get much for free from them (especially since I pay a boatload in taxes). At least with Google I get to use a bunch of cool tools. Thank you Google.

What do you think?

Uncertain Times

One thing that can definitely be said is that we are living in uncertain times. In the past we could at least look at some long term trends and make some decent predictions of the future. That is clearly not the case today. What is going to happen with the pandemic? No idea. What is going to happen with the economy? No idea. What is going to happen to my job? Well, I have not lost it yet, but other than that, I have no idea? Will there be war? No idea. Will there be a massive explosion that levels my town (like Beirut)? No idea. Hurricane? Earthquake? Tornado? Wildfire? No idea. Wow, maybe uncertain is too tame of a term? No idea!

Well, at least we are all in the same boat.

What do you think?

The Death Of Live Music

I wonder if we are witnessing the death of live music? There have been no live concerts in basically the whole USA for some time. That is especially the case here in California, the entertainment capital of the world. Sure we have had live "streamcast" concerts, but do they even count? Broadway in New York is "dark" till at least January (if not longer). Here in Riverside County California they have even banned all live performances even at outdoor restaurants.

I was playing Jazz at a restaurant in San Diego County, but I had to stop because the owner could not afford to pay me any more. So if you throw in the inability to pay for live music because of the economic situation, this could very well be the end of live music as we know it. Will it bounce back once we have some kind of recovery? I have no idea. I hope it does. I just can't imagine living in a world without live music.

What do you think?

So What's Next?

I have not written in a while. I think I have just been in shock over all that is going on. It has been the most interesting summer of my life. Here in California we started to open the economy only to basically shut it down again. We had a wave of violent protests that seem to have calmed down. Most schools are also going to start the year online (mine included). It has just been a very unique summer to say the least.

So what's next? It sure feels like there will be another shoe drop at some point. What could that be? What could be worse that a pandemic and national rioting? Honestly, I wish it would all just stop for a while and we could catch our breath. Oh wait, we have a national election in a few weeks. Yeah, that's not going to be interesting right?

What do you think?

How Remarkable Will 2020 Be?

2020 is going to go down as a very interesting year. So far we have had a worldwide pandemic and a national protest. Is that significant? Could 2020 be like 1928 and the start of the depression? Or 1939 and the start of WWII? Could it be a major inflection point? Or could it be just a bad year like 2008 was? We will only know in retrospect. What is a fact is that 2020 has not been dull.

What do you think?

Was It All An Illusion?

What if our life before the pandemic was an illusion? What if life as it "is", the real life, is what we are living now? What if the pandemic just pulled the curtain back and exposed the reality that the life we knew was just smoke and mirrors? Let me give you an example: toilet paper. Now I understood how all the stores ran out of toilet paper as people panicked and hoarded toilet paper (and a host of other things). But why is there still no toilet paper at the stores two months after? Is the supply chain broken, or was it never working right? I just do not understand how the richest nation in the world can run out of toilet paper? Maybe what we thought was abundance was just an illusion? Maybe it was all a trick? If that is the case, Lord have mercy on us all. If we can't provide enough toilet paper to meet demand, what else are we going to run out of? What else will we have to do without?

What do you think?

Employment Numbers

The employment numbers came out today. The unemployment rate soared to 14.7%, the highest one month increase ever. It was admitted that it probably is low because of undercounting. The rate is probably closer to 20%. Also, over 100,000,000 are not in the labor force, which is the largest number ever. Many people just stopped working all together in one way or another. If this does not improve quickly we are in for a heap of trouble.

My concern is what will all this unemployment do to the economy? I think that even if everything opens up, no one will be spending any money. I think we are all in economic shock. I know I will not be going to the mall, out for a movie or a meal, nor will I be doing any traveling. I suspect there are millions like me. In other words, we are going to suffer a massive contraction in spending no matter what happens. How will that play out in the economy? Not well I suspect.

What do you think?

Record Unemployment

The Governor just came out and stated that we have over 4 million people out of work here in California. That is a massive number. During the great recession we had about 1.3 million people out of work in California, so it is more than 3 times worse. Also, the jobs lost in the great recession were over a period of years. We lost all the current jobs in about 2 months. What impact is this going to have on the future? It all depends how quickly people get back to work. If things go back fairly quickly and smoothly, the impact will be hard, but it will pass in a few months. But, what happens if most jobs do not come back? What if the "temporary" job losses become permanent? Wow, things will get scary if that happens.

What do you think?

How will this end?

What will things be like once this pandemic ends? Will we return to all things normal, or will things be radically different? Unfortunately, we will not know until we get there. Anyone claiming to "know" has no clue since there is no way to "know". The reality is we will all have to wait and see how the story ends, which for many people is hard to do. Especially when we have all been conditioned to knowing what happened by the end of the binge watching session. I for one hate waiting, but that is all we can do. Hopefully this story has a happy ending. A sad ending would not be good for any of us.

What do you think?

How Much Longer?

Here in Southern California we have been on a stay at home order for about six week. People are starting to venture out. As I ran errands today traffic was heavy. I think people will be forcing California to start opening stuff back up. You can't keep people locked up forever, especially when they do not see a threat from the virus. Here in California the numbers have been much lower than say New York, Italy, or Spain. Why is that? No one can say for sure, but the fact that the governor made everyone stay home back in March is a factor. I think the other factors here in California are that we live more spread out, and we also do not take public transportation. As a result, our numbers are lower and people will start demanding to have restrictions lifted. Hopefully our numbers will stay low once that happens.

What do you think?

New Thoughts

I stopped blogging about 4 years ago. Today I decided to write a post because I went back and read some of what I had written. Today we are on a stay at home order because of Covid 19. 4 years ago I would not have guessed that we would all be subject to staying at home for an extended period of time. I would have never guessed that all the schools in California would be closed for nearly 2 months with more weeks to go. I would never have guessed that the world would be turned upside down as it has been. So maybe it is a good time to start again?

Today we passed 60,000 deaths from Covid 19 in the US. That is a huge number, but it still is not as many deaths as the flu in 2017-18. The flu that season killed about 80,000 people. So is Covid 19 not as worse as the flu? What people forget is that we have had most of the 60,000 people die in the span of one month. The flu kills people over the span of 3-6 months. Plus, the death toll is still climbing. The real problem is the health care system, not the disease itself. I think the big reason for the stay at home order here in California is to keep the hospitals from being over run with sick people. So far, hospitals have not been over run.

On the other hand, how much of our economy are we willing to destroy? If we lock down for much longer, many businesses will never reopen (many have already decided to call it quits). Today we have over 30 million people unemployed across the country. Is is worth the cost? At this point we can't tell, but at some point we will be able to look back and either conclude that we did the right thing, or that we overreacted and killed off the economy. Hopefully it will be that we did the right thing because if we did not, our children will never forgive us.

What do you think?